Lance Armstrong at NY Marathon

[achandicap]

Pinnacle has a prop up whether Lance Armstrong will finish the New York Marathon in over or under 3 hours. The over is at +118, and I think is a pretty good bet. I am a marathon runner; my best time is 3:26. (The world record is 2 hours, 5 minutes.) To run a 3:00 marathon, you have to run 6:52 minute miles. That's not easy for even an accomplished amateur runner.

I read an interview with Lance about six weeks ago, and he said his longest run was only 13 miles to that point. If that's the case, he's behind on his training. (You need at least one 20-mile run, at 80-90 percent about a month before the race, and need at least a month to ramp up from 13 to 20.) Seeing that three hours is a tough goal, he hasn't maintained a typical marathon training schedule and this is his first marathon, I think the over is a pretty good bet.

 

[slick69]

Good posts. Anything stand out to you on any of the matchups at pinnacle?

 

[achandicap]

Nah. Marathons are very inconsistent. Even if you're on the top of your game, you can have a bad day on the day of the race. Wierd things happen after 20 miles that you can't control.

 

[Bennyshoe]

I also read that Lance has some injury. That's why he only reached 13 miles as his longest run. It was in the USA Today I think but I don't remember the injury.

 

[Bennyshoe]

"He's still feeling the effects of a 16-mile run a couple of weeks ago near his home in Austin, Texas. Armstrong has shin splints and some other aches and pains. Still, he's confident he'll finish the marathon, paced by retired distance-running greats Alberto Salazar, Joan Benoit Samuelson and Hicham El Guerrouj."

"I don't want to say there's no question I'll finish, but I can always crawl," he said. "If I start smart and conservatively, I'll be OK from a fuel and energy standpoint. From a pain standpoint, I can deal with it."

"His goal Sunday will be breaking 3 hours, far behind the elite runners. He has a couple of targets to shoot for - his former wife, Kristin, finished the 2004 New York City Marathon in 3:45.53, and Tour de France cyclist Laurent Jalabert ran the 2005 New York race in 2:55.39."

 

[achandicap]

If he did 16 two weeks ago, that was his longest run and he's hurting, he's in trouble. A person with that kind of prep doesn't run a 3-hour marathon unless he's been training regularly well uner sub-7 minute mile pace. Before my marathons, I was training per mile (for about half the distance) at right about the same pace as I raced. And I was doing more mileage.

 

[Bennyshoe]

I also read he has a team of people that are going to pace him. They're going to push him hard to keep pace.

"Cyclist Lance Armstrong, who relied on the support of teammates in winning seven straight Tour de France titles, will have his own little team at the New York Marathon on Sunday.

Former champions Alberto Salazar and Joan Benoit Samuelson and reigning Olympic 1,500-meter and 5,000-meter champion Hicham El Guerrouj will run alongside him to try to keep him on a 7-minute-per-mile pace.

Salazar will run the first 10 miles, Benoit Samuelson the next 10 and El Gerrouj the final few miles. He’ll finish on his own."

 

[MAGAking1]

Armstrong did, however, go for a run in Central Park yesterday. He said he felt good, although he iced his shins afterward.

“Never in my career as a cyclist did I have to ice anything,” he said in an interview yesterday at his hotel. “So all this is new for me. I can’t tell you what’s going to happen in the race. I just hope to God that I can finish.” JULIET MACUR (NYT)

Armstrong is a bad ass athlete. He just may be a little over his head in this one though.
Everything I read indicates that he will take more than 3 hours. Now all BS aside , I really worry about is some type of boost he may get from a "peformance enhancing supplement".

I like this gambool!!!

500 to win 425 on over 3 hrs at Pinny.

 

[Doug]

If he doesn't finish is over a win or a push ?

 

[Domer]

I believe it is NO ACTION

 

[Domer]

I'm not sure about betting this. While the information is sound and in doing my own research it doesn't appear he has himself physically ready to do a sub-3 hour run...he has been very adament about getting a sub-3 time, will have 3 people pacing him, and has even said he wants to finish around "45 minutes" behind the leaders indicating a time of 2:50.

And if Lance is setting a goal that rigorous, I would be hard pressed to bet against it. The guy not only came back from cancer, he won 7 Tours. If he has set something as a goal, I seriously, seriously doubt he is going to fall short of it. Data be damned.

Just my two cents. Good luck to you guys!

 

[chriscol]

I'm not sure about betting this. While the information is sound and in doing my own research it doesn't appear he has himself physically ready to do a sub-3 hour run...he has been very adament about getting a sub-3 time, will have 3 people pacing him, and has even said he wants to finish around "45 minutes" behind the leaders indicating a time of 2:50.

And if Lance is setting a goal that rigorous, I would be hard pressed to bet against it. The guy not only came back from cancer, he won 7 Tours. If he has set something as a goal, I seriously, seriously doubt he is going to fall short of it. Data be damned.

Just my two cents. Good luck to you guys!

i see it the same way.he is not like an athlete from another sport trying something completely new. i never ran a martahon, but from what i understand the problem for newbies is usually the unexpected hard last few miles...should not be a problem for him. if there is one athlete who knows how to deal with a tireing body it s armstrong.
only thing that scares me of taking under is that there is nothing really on line for him..it s more of a fun event for him, but after reading all your/his comments he seems to have a goal in beating the 3 hours.
the under was yesterday down to -110, now it jumped to +170..i still think it s the way to go

 

[chriscol]

also checked the weather. should be fairly warm and no wind or rain. so no problem from this side

 

[HPark1]

I think its risky to just bet on Lance because he's Lance. He's not in the same shape he was for those tours and running and riding a bike are alot different then they seem. From the sounds of it he has slowly lowered his expectations as the marathon has neared. He could be bs'ing so he looks like a real hero today but I'm getting the feeling he's truely underprepared and his injuries are also a factor.

Yesterday he said;

“I would be very happy to post a sub-3 hour time, but since this is all new for me, I just hope to God that I can finish.”

Pinny had will he finish at -700/+600 and its a shame they brought that down. I think its a real possibility he doesn't. Obviously I think the Over 3 hours is a great bet, just hope he can finish...

 

[joelatti]

Didn't PUFF Daddy finish this race a couple of years ago?

Lance WILL finish barring sevre injury....SUB 3 hours????

 

[HPark1]

3:30:18 - Senator John Edwards
3:44:52 - President George W. Bush
3:56:12 - Will Ferrel
4:14:54 - P Diddy
4:29:20 - Oprah Winfrey
4:58:25 - Al Gore

 

[Domer]

"I think its risky to just bet on Lance because he's Lance."

I don't think anyone was saying that. I was saying this is a no play.

Just because the line exists doesn't mean you have to bet it.

As of right now he is on pace for 2:52. He could drop off substantially, we'll see.

 

[HPark1]

My point was I thought Lance might be getting too much respect.

Anyways last check he was still on pace for Under 3 hours so its looking like my prediction is going down.

 

[chriscol]

any update on his time. they stopped the broadcast here in germany

 

[HPark1]

went under by 23 seconds.